Greg / Pope surf model · last three weeks

Small windows, sharp filters.

From Apr 22 through May 12, the nightly Campus Point / Sands handoff produced 378 forecast-window rows. The clean read: Sands had the better ceiling, dawn was the reliable window, and short-period west energy kept most days in the “maybe” band rather than true high-stoke territory.

21 nightly handoffs 21 completed target days 126 latest window calls analyzed 629 enriched historical Greg/Pope sessions as baseline

Executive Read

Worth-check windows4838% of completed calls landed 6/10 or better.
High-stoke windows1814% reached 8/10 or better.
Best spotSandsSands averaged 6.3/10.
Best windowDawnDawn Patrol averaged 6.3/10.

What mattered

  • Energy was not the bottleneck alone. The period field was short on 96 of 126 latest calls, which kept decent-looking west direction from turning into strong analogs.
  • Sands won the ceiling. The top completed call was Sands Mid-morning on Apr 28: 10/10, waist to chest, WNW at 10s.
  • Wind rarely gave the model a clean bonus. Manageable or favorable wind showed up often, but the report mostly lacked classic glassy/offshore tags.
  • Campus needed tide help. Its better moments clustered around near-high/falling rather than low-tide exposure.

Completed-day rating pulse

Line shows each completed target day’s best available window. It reads as a low-to-mid consistency pattern with only a few clean spikes.

Three-Week Calendar

Each cell shows the best latest call for that target day across Campus Point and Sands. This is the simplest “should Greg have looked?” view. The live handoff also contains forward-looking rows for May 13, May 14; best pending look is Sands Mid-morning on May 13 at 7/10.

Wed 22 7/10 best 3.7 avg
Thu 23 7/10 best 3.7 avg
Fri 24 7/10 best 4.8 avg
Sat 25 8/10 best 5.3 avg
Sun 26 8/10 best 6.7 avg
Mon 27 9/10 best 6.2 avg
Tue 28 10/10 best 6.8 avg
Wed 29 9/10 best 5.3 avg
Thu 30 8/10 best 4.3 avg
Fri 1 9/10 best 5.8 avg
Sat 2 9/10 best 6.0 avg
Sun 3 7/10 best 5.2 avg
Mon 4 10/10 best 6.2 avg
Tue 5 10/10 best 5.8 avg
Wed 6 5/10 best 3.3 avg
Thu 7 7/10 best 5.7 avg
Fri 8 8/10 best 5.3 avg
Sat 9 8/10 best 4.0 avg
Sun 10 8/10 best 5.3 avg
Mon 11 7/10 best 4.5 avg
Tue 12 7/10 best 4.7 avg

Spot × Window Infographic

Campus Point Dawn Patrol 5.1 6 worth-check days
Campus Point Mid-morning 4.0 4 worth-check days
Campus Point Lunch 3.0 0 worth-check days
Sands Dawn Patrol 7.4 19 worth-check days
Sands Mid-morning 6.3 12 worth-check days
Sands Lunch 5.2 7 worth-check days

Best Windows

Apr 28Mid-morning · Sands
10/10

waist to chest from WNW at 10s; falling; SSW 4 kt, fairly manageable.

Apr 28Dawn Patrol · Sands
10/10

waist to chest from WNW at 11s; rising; NE 0 kt, light offshore / favorable.

May 4Mid-morning · Sands
10/10

waist to chest from WNW at 12s; rising; W 6 kt, fairly manageable.

May 5Mid-morning · Sands
10/10

waist to chest from WNW at 10s; rising; WSW 6 kt, fairly manageable.

Apr 29Lunch · Sands
9/10

waist to chest from WNW at 5s; falling; SW 3 kt, fairly manageable.

May 1Lunch · Sands
9/10

waist to chest from WNW at 6s; falling; SSW 4 kt, fairly manageable.

May 2Dawn Patrol · Sands
9/10

waist to chest from WNW at 7s; rising; E 5 kt, light offshore / favorable.

Apr 27Dawn Patrol · Sands
9/10

waist to chest from WNW at 12s; near high; SW 4 kt, fairly manageable.

Condition DNA

Swell direction

W
72
WNW
54

Period band

short
96
mid
30

Practical size

thigh to waist
78
waist to chest
45
knee high
3

Tide state

falling
46
rising
32
near low
24
near high
16
unknown
8

Wind family

manageable
67
onshore/degrading
27
offshore/favorable
19
textured
13

Rating distribution

maybe
46
weak
32
worth checking
30
high-stoke
18

Observed Buoy Backcheck

This layer uses cached observed rows from the Santa Barbara lead/entry buoys, not the generated forecast. It is a coarse water-state check, not a spot-level surf report.

Apr 24 8.5 ft 11s avg 3 buoys reporting
Apr 25 5.9 ft 13s avg 3 buoys reporting
Apr 26 3.9 ft 14s avg 3 buoys reporting
Apr 27 4.9 ft 14s avg 3 buoys reporting
Apr 28 5.9 ft 13s avg 3 buoys reporting
Apr 29 7.5 ft 9s avg 3 buoys reporting
Apr 30 8.5 ft 10s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 1 9.2 ft 12s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 2 6.6 ft 13s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 3 5.9 ft 12s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 4 5.6 ft 16s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 5 6.2 ft 14s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 6 5.6 ft 12s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 7 6.2 ft 10s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 8 8.2 ft 12s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 9 8.5 ft 8s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 10 8.5 ft 8s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 11 8.2 ft 11s avg 3 buoys reporting
May 12 5.9 ft 13s avg 3 buoys reporting

Buoy summary

Buoy laneCoverageAvg heightAvg dominant periodPeak observed pulse
Santa Maria lead19 days5.9 ft12s9.2 ft on May 1
West Santa Barbara19 days5.3 ft12s8.2 ft on May 1
Harvest entry19 days6.2 ft12s8.9 ft on May 1

Forecast Stability

Lead-time noise

Because each nightly handoff looks three days ahead, the same target window can be seen one, two, or three times. Average forecast swing across repeated completed windows was 1.3 rating points. That is useful: the model is stable enough for a nightly call, but big changes still deserve attention.

Biggest revisions

  • Apr 28 Sands / Lunch moved 5→5 with a 5-point forecast range.
  • May 4 Sands / Lunch moved 5→7 with a 5-point forecast range.
  • May 4 Sands / Mid-morning moved 5→10 with a 5-point forecast range.
  • Apr 29 Sands / Lunch moved 5→9 with a 4-point forecast range.
  • May 1 Sands / Lunch moved 5→9 with a 4-point forecast range.

Historical Baseline

SpotSessionsAvg qualityWorth-it shareAvg model score
Campus Point5063.453%4.1
Sands1233.561%5.6

Campus Point historical good-session fingerprint

Direction

unknown
265

Tide

falling
126
rising
60
near high
46
near low
31
unknown
2

Wind

neutral_manageable
215
junked_up
30
textured_but_surfable
10
clean_favorable
10

Size Jonah/Greg described

Knee high
95
Thigh to waist
59
Waist to chest
42
Ankle slappers
39
Head high
17
Overhead
12
Big-wave Session
1

Sands historical good-session fingerprint

Direction

unknown
78

Tide

falling
32
near high
23
rising
19
near low
4

Wind

neutral_manageable
45
junked_up
11
clean_favorable
10
textured_but_surfable
10
storm_junk
2

Size Jonah/Greg described

Waist to chest
35
Thigh to waist
19
Head high
11
Knee high
9
Overhead
4

Operational Takeaways

How I’d use this tomorrow

  • Keep the nightly report biased toward the single best target window, not three equal windows per day.
  • Flag period upgrades more aggressively; short-period west was the recurring almost-but-not-quite pattern.
  • Make Sands the first check when the call is high-5 or better and wind is manageable, because its recent ceiling beat Campus.
  • For Campus, require a stronger tide/context justification before calling anything better than low-expectation.

Next analytics upgrade

  • Add observed buoy deltas for each completed target day to show whether the actual water under- or over-performed the forecast.
  • Keep a Greg feedback field: went / skipped / regretted / scored. That will turn this from forecast analytics into real decision analytics.
  • Separate “fun social paddle” from “quality wave” in the target model; the history clearly has both signals mixed together.